As a consequence of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, eight independent states were formed in Central Eurasia (CEA), causing a dramatic change in the geopolitics of the region. Five of these states in are in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). Hence, political control of the Caspian Sea region shifted from two states (Russia and Iran) to five (Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). The five littoral states have an estimated 14.6 percent (1,050.0 BBbbl) of the world’s total proven oil reserves and nearly 50 percent (5476.7 tcf) of the world’s total proven natural gas reserves.^[1] Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region have become a viable alternative to Persian Gulf energy resources as the world’s demand for energy continues to escalate. The volume under review focuses on these issues.
Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIPE), The Hague, is an independent forum for governments and non-governmental organizations, the private sector, media, and others interested in issues of world energy. The author has compiled an extremely valuable, highly detailed, and well-documented compendium on this intricate region and the geographical and political complexities that surround the topic of energy sources in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Sea region in the post-Cold War era. Further, he offers informed insights and presents a baseline for this dynamic region as of 2002. Mehdi Parvizi Amineh is an Associate Fellow at the CIPE; Senior Research Fellow, International Institute for Asian Studies, Leiden; and serves as lecturer at the University of Amsterdam and the Amsterdam School for International Relations. He is author of several books, including Towards the Control of Oil Resources in the Caspian Region (2000) and Central Eurasia in Global Politics: Conflict, Security and Development [with Henk Houweling] (2004).
The 11 chapters in Globalization, Geopolitics and Energy Security are complemented by four maps, seven figures, ten tables, and a variety of references (421 item bibliography, 40 newspapers, and 26 Internet sites). I shall summarize and critique the main points of each chapter prior to an overall assessment.
“Chapter 1: Rethinking Geopolitics in the Age of Globalization” provides the theoretical background and reflects Amineh’s refreshing rethinking of traditional geopolitics (particularly global trade, production. and investment) and he postulates a new analytical framework he calls “critical geopolitics” or “neo-geopolitics.” In “Chapter 2: Central Eurasian Politics and Economy: An Historical Background,” he gives a brief overview of the Pre-Islamic through the Russian and Soviet periods, and post-Soviet society and economy in the CEA, emphasizing the eight countries. Amineh notes that geographically, as a trade link and region of transit, CEA connects European centers and the resource-rich countries of the Middle East, and the highly populated nations of South Asia and the Asian-Pacific area. There is nothing especially unique about this chapter, although one may argue that the connections to South Asia and Indo-Pacific regions are understated. “Chapter 3: Caspian Energy Resources and the Global Market” focuses on global oil and gas demands and reserves, proven and possible supplies, and the role of Caspian oil in these demands. He stresses that CEA oil and gas reserves could not substitute those of the Persian Gulf states but could serve as a viable alternative, especially for European and East Asian states. The data is current to 2002 but demand has since risen sharply.
Each of the five subsequent chapters begins with the title “The New Great Game in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Region” and then focuses on clusters of states, political entities, and particular topics. Russia, Iran, and Turkey are detailed in Chapter 4, in which Amineh views Russia as the major player: desipte its diminishing power, Russia nevertheless has attempted to strengthen military, political, and economic ties with key members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Iran and Turkey, he notes, have developed regional political alliances and Russia and Iran have entered into a strategic alliance that includes arms shipments to Iran. The latter is a counter to the US-Turkey alliance, which facilitates Turkey’s position in its bid for membership in the European Union. Nonetheless, and creating greater geopolitical complexity, there are cooperative agreements between Russia and Turkey in the BSEC (Black Sea Economic Co-operation) and between Iran and Turkey in the ECO (Economic Co-operation Organization). The chapter also contains separate discussions of each nation’s geopolitical mapping. Chapter 5 centers on China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, primarily on the former; Pakistan and Afghanistan are discussed, alas, too briefly and then only in the context of being able to provide routes for the construction of pipelines that would open up the populous Asian markets to CEA gas and oil reserves. China is rightly perceived as a very important player in CEA because of its own rising demands for oil and gas and for its own significant but yet underdeveloped petroleum reserves in the Xinjiang region. However, political stability is threatened by radical Islamic groups and by the separatist movement among Xinjiang’s Muslim population.
In Chapter 6, Amineh considers the United States and European Union and briefly reviews US relations (especially since September 11, 2001) with Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China. American military presence has increased substantially since that infamous date and coincides with increased US efforts to promote the construction of oil and gas pipelines. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan initially supported these US efforts but Uzbekistan has recently terminated the agreement that allowed US airbases there (July 2005). The continuing presence of American airbases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been assured only for the short term. The situation is exacerbated by US demands for greater democratic reform in the CEA states, but American protection of Uzbek dissidents was unacceptable to the current Uzbekistan regime. The chapter also has a rather brief discussion on the European Union and its interest in CEA stability and the meager efforts to improve highway and railway infrastructure between CEA and Europe. The subsequent chapter undertakes the complicated issue of Transnational Corporations (TNOCs), which in the main act independently, since their primary goals include the construction of highly profitable pipelines. Amineh reviews five historical phases of TNOC activity and deals with 10 transnationals. The discussion is limited to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, and to natural resources ownership, other legal issues, and export restrictions in the Caspian Sea basin, which currently precludes the exploitation of the region’s petroleum resources. Chapter 8 touches upon two regional developments among “non-state actors” – the narcotics business and the rise of radical Islamic political groups. He documents CEA’s role as a drug trafficking center and how this affects political and economic developments among CEA states. In his examination of major drug routes and regional security, Amineh notes that political Islam has no tradition in CEA and that it is a phenomenon of the Middle East and North Africa. Most Islamic groups, he states, emerged from the Islamic underground that developed during the Soviet era. Among the topics he reviews are political Islam in Central Asia, the history of Islamism in CEA, Post-Soviet Islam, Post-Soviet Islamic political organizations, and the Islamic movement in Uzbekistan.
“Chapter 9: The Caspian Legal Regime Dispute” provides essential background and an analysis of why the Caspian’s oil and gas resources have not been exploited and exported. The political complexities of the Caspian Sea, and its legal regimes and political divisions are related and Amineh summarizes four distinct historical perspectives on the amicable division of the seabed and its resources. These include: 1) The Treaty of Amity (1921) and Navigation Agreement of 1940 between Russia/USSR and Persia/Iran; 2) an Azerbaijani proposition based on the Law of the Sea (1982); 3) a Russia-Iran-Turkmenistan “national sectors” proposal (1996); and 4) a Kazakhstan-Russian compromise agreement (1998). Lastly, he suggests two scenarios for the future: 1) the extension of the Russian-Kazakh agreement to the other three littoral states; or 2) the persistence of the no-solution situation. Chapter 10, “Pipeline Routes: The Challenge of Oil and Gas Transport from the Caspian Region,” details 18 existing and potential pipeline routes: Western (7), Northern (3), Eastern (3), Southern (5). These are elucidated in the narrative and graphically represented on a color plate, Map 10.1 (Pp. 206-207). Economic, political, and security issues influence the preferred pipeline routes. Readers should be aware of the rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics of pipeline route proposals.^[2] In “Chapter 11: Conclusions,” the author discusses the prospects for stability and security and the possibilities for political and economic development in the CEA.
Amineh sees the CEA and Caspian Sea basin as involving state and non-state actors: inner circle actors (Russia, Iran, and Turkey), outer circle actors (China, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan), external actors (the United States and the European Union), and non-state actors (transnational corporations, ethnic-religious groups, criminal groups, etc.). An important element toward control of the region's energy resources is the construction of transport routes. The question of where to construct pipelines engenders considerable conflicts between the interested players, which might create obstacles to building the most economically viable and secure pipelines. Transportation of energy resources to the global market is also subject to conflicts between different forces within the CEA region, including ethno-religious conflicts. The lack of infrastructure and technology, and the need for a solution of the Caspian legal regime dispute, places serious obstacles to prospective pipeline construction. The political crisis in Georgia and adjacent regions has complicated the issue. The political stabilization in Afghanistan has resurrected the Trans-Afghan Pipeline (TAP), which would be built from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and end in Pakistan. Conceived by Bridas Corporation in 1991, it attracted Unocal’s interest by 1995 (and the Chinese are now interested in Unocal). Two routes have been proposed, each with disparate ethnic backing. Nonetheless, income derived from TAP would have the potential to offset Afghanistan’s economic difficulties and offset the income derived from opium poppy cultivation. In addition, the transnationals (British Gas, Total, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, ConcoPhillips, etc.) continue to negotiate with CEA states and among themselves to acquire stakes in resources such as the Kashgan oil field as well as pipeline routes.
One topic needing greater attention in any assessment of the region is demographic analysis and projection. The dynamics of population change in Central Asia and Russia are distinct. Russia and member nations of the European Union are undergoing significant demographic declines while CEA, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and China are expanding rapidly. Migrants from Turkey and North Africa have helped maintain the demographic status-quo in Europe. Central Asia is likely to play a role in the future.
This reference-like book provides an essential background for understanding contemporary geopolitical issues in Central and South Asia, the Caspian region, the energy industry, and international relations. Readers will find Amineh’s essays compelling and thought-provoking.